Examining The Cost Required To Upgrade An NHL Team’s Fourth-Line: The Washington Capitals Get More Value Than What Most Successful Teams Spend trucc

   

The Washington Capitals seem to have gotten high returns lately for players who primarily play on their fourth line whether it is Beck Malenstyn, Lars Eller, or Garnet Hathaway.

The primary function of NHL players who take on that role is playing against the opposition’s top trio and help the team’s shutdown defensive pair prevent any goals against, both at five-on-five and on the penalty kill. NoVa Caps looks at three recent trades by eventual Stanley Cup Champions and the cost that usually comes with upgrading a team’s shut down line compared to what Washington has acquired for their depth pieces.

2022: Colorado Avalanche acquire RW Andrew Cogliano from the San Jose Sharks in exchange for 2024 fifth-round pick
Colorado barely gave up anything for a versatile forward who tallied a .5685 five-on-five Corsi-for percentage, .5711 five-on-five expected goals-for percentage, and .5977 five-on-five expected scoring chances-for percentage in 16 postseason outings. Cogliano also averaged 2:07 on a penalty kill on an Avalanche team that finished this tournament with the third-lowest goals-against per game (2.75) and seventh-best penalty kill (.804). Cogliano might have done better than the statistics indicate considering Colorado posted a .5872 five-on-five expected goals-for percentage that spring but also had the fourth-worst five-on-five save percentage (.9054).

Cogliano would re-sign with Colorado twice on one-year contracts before hanging up the skates this summer.

2022: Colorado acquires C Nico Sturm from the Minnesota Wild in exchange for C Tyson Jost
Colorado traded away a former 10th overall pick who has yet to live up to his potential and ranked 11th among team forwards in ice time-per-game at the time of this deal for a shutdown center, who posted a .4762 five-on-five Corsi-for percentage, .4844 five-on-five expected goals-for percentage, .4219 five-on-five expected scoring chances-for percentage, and .308 faceoff-winning percentage during the team’s run to the Stanley Cup. Sturm also tallied two assists and ranked fifth among Avalanche forwards in shorthanded ice time-per-game (1:01) but did not appear in every game, getting scratched for six.

Jost, who saw his goal production decline in each of his five campaigns in the Rockies, would play 12 more games in Minnesota the following season before getting waived and claimed by the Buffalo Sabres.

2023: Vegas Golden Knights acquire C Teddy Blueger from the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for D Peter DiLiberatore, 2024 third-round pick
Vegas parted with a former sixth-round pick whom Pittsburgh let go of after that season in addition to the third-rounder for Blueger, who recorded a .4483 five-on-five Corsi-for percentage, .3896 five-on-five expected goals-for percentage, .45 five-on-five expected scoring chances-for percentage, and .267 faceoff-winning percentage in six postseason outings.

Blueger would sign a two-year contract with the Vancouver Canucks after Vegas won the Stanley Cup.

Last season, the Florida Panthers did not make any moves to their fourth-line before the spring.

Teams who have had success lately have not spent a ton to improve their fourth-line right before their postseason runs. The Capitals got better returns than all of these packages, but there are different circumstances.

The Toronto Maple Leafs spent a top-10 protected 2025 first-round pick, 2026 second-round pick, right-wing Joey Anderson, and left-wing Pavel Gogolev to acquire center Sam Lafferty and defenseman Jake McCabe from the Chicago Blackhawks just prior to the 2023 trade deadline. This deal is awfully similar to the trade that sent Hathaway to the Boston Bruins last year, where the Capitals also threw in Dmitry Orlov to up the return.

The Capitals managed to get three second-round picks in all three of the Hathaway, Eller (which was ultimately flipped for Andrew Mangiapane last month), and Malenstyn trades, significantly more than what the Avalanche and Golden Knights spent to improve their fourth-line prior to their Stanley Cup runs which should be considered big wins. When a few more seasons pass, remember that Washington continues to improve.